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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his special ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still