An Enduring Ceasefire Among the Israeli State and the Palestinian Territories? We have Seen This Pattern – The Consequence Was More Bloodshed
So, which time period is this? An American leader, after months of tacit encouragement, has at last become involved to stop an Israeli military offensive that has transformed swaths of a city in the Middle East to debris, resulting in many thousands killed and sparking worldwide anger.
This military action has come after a sequence of strikes on Israel. Presently, facing demands from the US administration, the prime minister of Israel, a conservative politician with a gift for populist rhetoric and a strong feeling of Zionist historical purpose, has consented to a halt in hostilities.
Past Echoes
The era is not present day, but the early 1980s. The urban center is not the Gaza Strip, but Beirut, Lebanon. The president is the Reagan administration, not the current administration.
We find many differences between the events in Lebanon over four decades ago and current circumstances in the Gaza Strip in the past two years. The October attack of last year, which resulted in over a thousand and included two hundred fifty seized, differs significantly with the somewhat modest activities of the Palestinian leadership in the time before the Israeli incursion of the Lebanese nation.
Uncanny Similarities
Several similarities are remarkable. The US leader eventually made the call the Israeli leader, stating to him that what was happening in the city was "a catastrophe" and indicating the relationship between their states could be gravely damaged if the fighting persisted.
In 1982, much as today, the conflict unfolded in immediate coverage on global media. Numerous correspondents entered the capital to document for the initial instance an regional battle without media restrictions by either side.
Subsequent Developments
What happened after the conversation from Reagan and the truce in the city is educational. The PLO, its divisions and representatives were scattered across vast distances and a multiple nations.
American leadership then withdrew international forces – a violation of the arrangement with PLO leadership. Bashir Gemayel, the country's newly elected president and Israel's preferred proxy, was murdered by Damascus operatives.
Area-wide Shifts
Similar patterns emerged across the rest of the region. By the late seventies, the increasingly non-religious and modern approaches that had appeared to provide the promise of a different tomorrow in the Arab and Islamic worlds years before were undermined.
The outcomes of this emerged rapidly, in short order
Across the region, the Israeli state and the America now encountered opponents who were significantly more stubborn, deadly and effective than the leftists and independence advocates of previous times.
Western Response
In the west, the outcomes of this were perverse. Through the that decade, western analysts and officials had tried to analyze what led to militant radicalism.
Subsequently, in the beginning of that decade, this ended. Political leaders in the United States, the Britain and additional countries were ceased being concerned in "fundamental sources" of violence.
Modern Parallels
In recent days, sources suggest that today's officials informed the nation's leadership that the country could not confront global opinion and acknowledged Palestinian aspirations for a independent nation.
This also was an repetition of 1982. In the aftermath of the armed entry of Lebanon, earlier administration told the Israeli government that the power of its armed forces alone could not "achieve just and lasting peace" and acknowledged "proper claims of the Arab residents."
But a internationally-backed regional peace plan meant to resolve those concerns stalled completely. Abroad, national representatives observed impotently.
Worldwide concern in the area waned. Israel opposed compromises. Afterward, there was the initial uprising, and the establishment of additional militant groups.
- The repetitions of previous events provide thought-provoking lessons for present-day diplomatic initiatives
- Lasting solutions require dealing with root causes rather than brief halts
- Area politics continue to develop in complicated and often unpredictable ways