Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The mean figure of per-day homicides monthly in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh administrative statistics. However, security specialists have advised that murder figures might not point to better national safety.

Notable Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 murders a day in last November versus roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September. This data was provided by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in murders that we’ve had during these months is very important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that last month the least amount of murders were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Violent cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly military efforts to take on the cartels, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure more than 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, we have oversight of the plan, and we have specific monitoring town by town in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The key components of the President's safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Limitations

However, security researchers warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is especially true given the increase in different crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously hopeful.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by more than 20% in the first 10 months of this year relative to the identical period last year. Yet, disappearances have increased by 15% and in certain regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for assessing the reality of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who lack the capacity or the will to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it could mask days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

Yet notwithstanding these measures, Mexico remains beset by extreme violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of protesters protested in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. Politically it’s very successful, socially it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst concluded.