Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Several members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an offensive online group.